After the end of the US-Soviet Cold War, there was a trend of peaceful development in the world, but the Cold War still persists on the Korean Peninsula, and it is still a security hotspot in East Asia and the world. The main problems include the division of North and South, the long-term hostility between the United States and South Korea and North Korea, the development of nuclear weapons by North Korea, and the resulting nuclear crises. These problems have brought serious military security risks to the peninsula and Northeast Asia.
Since the first North Korean nuclear crisis broke out in 1992, relevant parties have held bilateral, four-party, six-party dialogue and negotiation with the North, but they all ended in failure, forming a “crisis-dialogue-agreement-agreement failure-crisis”. Vicious circle. The fundamental reason for the failure of the dialogue on the North Korean nuclear and peninsula issue is the extreme lack of mutual trust between the United States and North Korea. There are huge differences in the definition of denuclearization of the peninsula and the road map and timetable for achieving denuclearization and establishing a peace mechanism. Mode” is highly vigilant.
Compared with the high levels of tension that have occurred many times before, the situation on the peninsula in the past two years has been relatively calm, but none of the many problems that have existed have been resolved, and the situation is worrying.
First of all, the dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea in Hanoi in 2019 was fruitless, especially after the 2020 global epidemic. Although the “double suspension” was still maintained on the peninsula, the dialogue on the denuclearization of the peninsula has ceased. After the Biden administration took office, it expressed its willingness to resume dialogue with North Korea unconditionally, as well as the new policy on North Korea introduced in May, both of which were publicly criticized by North Korea. The North Korean leader claimed that if the United States does not completely change its hostile policy towards North Korea, North Korea will never engage in dialogue with the United States again.
Second, North Korea, which has crossed the nuclear threshold, is still continuing to develop nuclear power, striving to obtain a status similar to that of India and Pakistan as a de facto nuclear state. In 2018, North Korea proposed a new strategic line, but in 2020, Kim Jong-un reintroduced the parallel line. At the Eighth National Congress of the Workers’ Party in January this year, he publicly announced North Korea’s grand plan for continuing to develop nuclear weapons in the future. Under this circumstance, there has been a growing question internationally: Is it possible for North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons?
Third, so far, North Korea has maintained the basic stability of domestic politics, but its economic development is facing serious difficulties. The failure of the domestic economic system and severe international sanctions are the main reasons for North Korea’s economic difficulties. In addition, the outbreak of the global epidemic in 2020 and severe natural disasters in the country have exacerbated North Korea’s economic difficulties.
Fourth, the peninsula and Northeast Asia continue to be shrouded in the shadow of nuclear proliferation, military confrontation and arms race. In May of this year, the United States allowed South Korea to develop medium-range missiles. In August, the United States and South Korea continued to conduct joint military exercises against North Korea. In September, North Korea and South Korea successively tested new ballistic missiles. If this situation does not change, North Korea will be able to conduct new nuclear and missile tests, South Korea and Japan will further expand their armaments, and the benefits of North Korea’s nuclear dominoes will become increasingly apparent.
Fifth, at the end of September, there were signs of relaxation in North-South relations. North Korea announced the resumption of communication with South Korea and stated that it is willing to discuss with South Korea on the issuance of an end-war declaration under certain conditions. However, South Korea’s proposal to issue a declaration of the end of the war was coldly received by the United States, and there are still difficulties in resuming dialogue between the North and the South.
Sixth, the serious deterioration of Sino-US relations has greatly weakened the willingness of the two sides to cooperate on the peninsula issue. Solving the North Korean nuclear issue is not the current priority of China and the United States.
In short, if the current stalemate on the peninsula cannot be changed, new crises will occur sooner or later. In order to avoid reappearance of tension on the peninsula, China and the United States should play the role of major powers, strive to narrow their differences, and strive to restart cooperation on the denuclearization of the peninsula at an early date. In this regard, the author has the following six suggestions:
1. China and the United States should jointly declare through high-level dialogue that the settlement of the Peninsula issue is an important area of ​​cooperation between the two countries, not an area of ​​competition or confrontation. For this reason, the United States must change its wrong approach of seeking cooperation with China on the peninsula while simultaneously suppressing China in many areas.
2. China and the United States should jointly promote the resumption of dialogue on the denuclearization of the peninsula under the premise of adhering to the “dual suspension”, and in particular support the resumption of dialogue and relaxation of relations between the North and the South. The reunification of the peninsula will eventually be achieved independently by the North and the South in a peaceful way.
3. China and the United States should reach consensus on the basic policy for achieving denuclearization of the peninsula under the new situation. These policies include:
Persist in the goal of achieving denuclearization of the Peninsula unwaveringly;
Persist in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue through peaceful dialogue instead of resorting to force;
Address the reasonable security concerns of all parties in a balanced manner, and promote the dual-track progress of the denuclearization of the Peninsula and the establishment of a peace mechanism on the Peninsula;
Implement the policy of “a package, phased, and simultaneous”.
4. China, the United States, North Korea and South Korea should first make major efforts to end the state of war on the peninsula, and should jointly propose a road map for achieving denuclearization on the peninsula. The four-party talks should gradually develop into six-party talks.
5. Persist in giving play to the important role of the UN Security Council in resolving the Korean nuclear peninsula issue. An urgent task is to explore how to implement the reversible clauses of the Security Council’s sanctions on North Korea, which may become a key to restarting dialogue on the peninsula.
6. In the process of realizing the denuclearization of the peninsula, China and the United States must work hard to maintain their strategic stability, including crisis management and control.