New Home Sales In 50 Cities Hit a Record Low In The First Quarter

The property market is back to normal.
In 2020, real estate is suffering a strong shock wave from the epidemic. According to the statistics of the Middle Finger Institute, the monthly average transaction area of ​​commercial residential buildings in 50 representative cities in the first quarter was about 14.1 million square meters, the lowest level in the same period in the past ten years, and the new construction and investment of the industry were affected. In order to hedge the impact of the epidemic, support policies have been issued intensively in many places.
On March 31, the Jiaxing Housing Provident Fund Management Committee issued a document stating that the loan period for purchasing newly-built commercial housing was up to 30 years, and the loan period for buying second-hand housing was adjusted from the original 20 years to a maximum of 30 years. The loan period shall not exceed 50 years and shall not exceed the land use period of the house.
On the same day, the Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau issued a document stating that property service companies and personnel should provide necessary facilities for owners or tenants to handle relevant procedures, and must not obstruct eligible real estate agencies and employees from conducting normal business activities for unjustified reasons; due to epidemic reasons If the contract for the commission, sale and lease of second-hand housing fails to be fulfilled as scheduled, the parties to the contract are encouraged to negotiate and resolve it properly.
At the same time, Hunan Yueyang City Housing and Construction Bureau, Development and Reform Commission and other 8 departments issued documents to support the stable and healthy development of the property market in terms of financial support, taxes and land transfer payments, construction fee payment, and pre-sale permission. After Hengyang, Xiangtan, Huaihua, and Yiyang, Hunan is the fifth city to introduce measures to stabilize the property market.
This is just the “tip of the iceberg” of real estate regulation during the epidemic. According to statistics from the Shell Research Institute, real estate related policies across the country have reached 307 times this year, including land management, process adjustments, provident funds, financial services, finance and burden reduction.
Supply-side policies mainly include deferred or instalment payment of land transfer fees, postponement of completion and completion of construction, adjustment of pre-sale conditions of commercial housing, adjustment of land sale bidding security ratios, etc. to help companies escape difficulties; on the demand side, the policy focuses more on increasing housing provident fund support Efforts, granting housing subsidies, and lowering the threshold for talents to settle.
According to data from the Shell Research Institute, during the epidemic, at least 23 provinces and cities issued 25 deferred payment policies, focusing on Hangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou and other key second-tier cities; at least 27 provinces and cities issued policies to adjust pre-sale; 20 provinces and cities have introduced policies to encourage and support online sales; at least 31 provinces and cities have issued phased provident fund support policies at least 53 times.
At the same time, the number of talent policies has remained high. According to incomplete statistics, in the first quarter, at least 15 provinces and cities nationwide introduced policies on talent settlement and talent settlement, and the competition in the eastern coastal areas was fierce. Among them, Jinan, Hangzhou, Suzhou and other places have stepped up their efforts to settle talents, and Hangzhou’s talent subsidies of up to 8 million have attracted much attention.
“The promulgation of the policy will play a positive role in alleviating the pressure on enterprises’ funds and boosting their investment confidence, and will further promote the stable development of the industry,” said the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute also believes that the regulatory measures have a positive effect on improving the market environment, and the cost of land acquisition by housing companies has been reduced accordingly. Some home purchase subsidies can only be enjoyed in the first half of the year, which can effectively stimulate consumption.
Judging from the performance of second-hand housing, the control and control measures of the epidemic have shown positive effects on the market.
According to data from the Shell Research Institute, in the first quarter, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in key 18 cities decreased by 39.2% month-on-month and 44.6% year-on-year. The current transaction volume was the lowest level in the past five years. However, in March, market transactions recovered rapidly, with transaction volume increasing by 41.8% over the previous two months, and now it has recovered to 63% of March last year, showing a clear “V” shape.
“Every year around the Spring Festival is a period of concentrated release just required by key cities, and some of the demand has accumulated to be released in March due to epidemic conditions.” The Shell Research Institute believes that both regulation and credit policies have a certain degree of marginal relaxation, driving market expectations to rise . In February, LPR declined, and some cities lowered developers’ land acquisition conditions, relaxed talent policies, and increased enthusiasm for entering the market.
However, the industry does not think that the regulation and control policy for the property market will be greatly relaxed, and the main tone of “no housing and speculation” is still there. Zhang Bo, director of the branch office of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute, believes that the main tone of the state’s regulatory policy remains unchanged, and he still insists on “do not speculate on housing and make policy according to the city.” In February, the Ministry of Finance requested the implementation of a long-term management mechanism for real estate; in March, the People’s Bank of China, in conjunction with the Ministry of Finance and the China Banking Regulatory Commission, stated that “do not use real estate as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term” and maintain the continuity, consistency, and stability of real estate financial policies.
From the perspective of the property market throughout the year, the Middle Finger Research Institute believes that with the easing of the epidemic, the delayed home purchase demand will gradually return to the market. It is expected that the annual market size will remain nearly 1.6 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7% to 8.5%. The demand for returning homes suppressed by the online market during the epidemic is difficult to be compensated, and the market adjustment pressure throughout the year is greater.